Data freshness note: all statistics cited in this article are drawn from reports and datasets published as of June 28, 2026.
- On June 23, 2026, President Trump claimed “typical” 401(k) accounts gained $30,000 during the first 13 months of his second term — a figure independent fact-checkers found does not match available retirement data.
- Fidelity Investments data across 26,000+ plans and 25 million participants shows the average 401(k) rose by $9,454 between December 31, 2024 and March 31, 2026 — roughly one-third of the presidential figure.
- The highest-gaining age bracket (workers aged 55–59) saw approximately $16,000 in average gains — still only half of the claimed amount.
- Reaching a $30,000 gain required a starting balance of at least $200,000, a threshold met by only 10–20% of American workers.
The Evidence
$9,454. That single number, drawn from Fidelity Investments’ analysis of 26,000+ retirement plans covering 25 million participants, is the fact-checker’s answer to President Trump’s June 23, 2026 claim that “typical” 401(k) accounts had grown by $30,000 during his second term’s first 13 months. The gap between those two numbers — more than $20,000 — is the story. According to Google News, multiple major outlets launched simultaneous fact-checks within 48 hours of the statement, and the verdict across all of them pointed in the same direction.
PolitiFact rated the claim “Mostly False,” calculating that across 11 age brackets tracked in Fidelity data, not a single group averaged gains above $16,000 — and that ceiling belonged exclusively to the 55–59 age cohort, peak-earning workers in their final sprint toward retirement. Money.com cross-checked using Q3 2025 Fidelity figures showing the average balance moved from $131,700 at end of 2024 to $144,400 by mid-2025, and concluded that even applying a 15% S&P gain for that window, an all-equity hypothetical portfolio would have yielded only $19,755 — still well short of $30,000.
WRAL gathered expert commentary from three university economists. Mark Williams of Boston University drew the clearest line: a $30,000 gain “would likely have required a $200,000+ balance.” Joe Fitter of Indiana University framed it as arithmetic: “The higher the account balance you have, the more gains you will have achieved.” Mark A. Johnson of Wake Forest University added a statistical caveat that applies to nearly all retirement data: “Averages in data like this tend to get pulled up by high-balance accounts, so the median would likely be lower than the $9,000 figure.”
What It Means: The Median Problem
Johnson’s warning lands harder when you see the actual figures side by side. As of Q4 2025, Kiplinger reported that the median 401(k) balance stood at $34,400 while the average sat at $146,400 — a 4.25x difference. That chasm exists because a relatively small number of high-balance accounts pull the mathematical average upward while the typical (median) worker sits far below it. Citing dollar gains using the average rather than the median is, at minimum, a framing choice that flatters the headline number.
Chart: Trump’s stated $30,000 figure compared against Fidelity’s reported average for all age groups ($9,454) and the highest-performing bracket ages 55–59 (~$16,000). Data period: December 31, 2024 through March 31, 2026.
The broader stock market context is real and worth acknowledging. The S&P 500 rose 24% from Trump’s January 20, 2025 inauguration through June 23, 2026 — a genuine and strong run. But actual 401(k) accounts grew only 6.5% over a comparable period. The reason is diversification: most retirement accounts hold a blend of stocks and bonds calibrated to the participant’s age, and bonds delivered flat returns during this stretch. A 60/40 portfolio (60% equities, 40% fixed income) captures only a fraction of an equity rally while absorbing bond drag. The S&P 500 is a pure equity benchmark — it is not a blended retirement portfolio benchmark, and treating it as one is where the math breaks down.
The Heritage Foundation, citing an Unleash Prosperity analysis, offered the most favorable data point: average 401(k) balances increased $23,200 between Q1 and Q3 2025, with annualized equity returns running approximately 19%. In my analysis, that figure and the Fidelity figure are not contradictory — they measure different windows and different portfolio compositions. The political problem arises when the best-case equity figure is presented as what the “typical” saver experienced across a full 13-month, diversified-portfolio period.
Photo by Behnam Norouzi on Unsplash
A Warning Signal Hiding in Plain Sight
While the debate over $30,000 played out publicly, a quieter metric was climbing. As of 2025, the hardship withdrawal rate among 401(k) participants hit 6%, up from 4.8% in 2024. Hardship withdrawals — early distributions triggered by genuine financial emergencies, which generate income taxes plus a 10% federal penalty — are the retirement system’s distress flare. When that rate rises during a period of strong market returns, it signals that gains are concentrated at the top while a growing share of workers are liquidating retirement savings to cover immediate needs. That’s not a bull market story. That’s a distribution story.
Set against it: as of Q1 2026, total savings rates (employee plus employer contributions combined) hit a record 14.4% among 401(k) participants, per Fidelity. That’s the behavioral bright spot. At 7% real returns, a sustained 14.4% contribution rate compounding over 30 years builds serious wealth — that’s the math that actually matters for anyone building long-term financial independence. But compounding resets when a hardship withdrawal clears years of gains from an account mid-career. This echoes the asset-concentration dynamic investor.newslens.me documented in its AI boom analysis: strong aggregate performance can mask deeply uneven distribution across households.
How to Act on This
Log into your 401(k) platform and compare your December 2024 balance to your current balance. That difference is your real gain — not the average, not the median, not any political figure. For most workers with balances below $100,000, even a strong market year produces a modest dollar gain, and that’s mathematically expected. The percentage return matters more at this stage. The compounding effect on that percentage, sustained over 20 or 30 years, is what converts a modest balance into a meaningful one.
Most major 401(k) platforms — Fidelity, Vanguard, T. Rowe Price — now include AI-powered allocation assessment and retirement-readiness tools as standard features. These tools flag whether your current bond/equity split is aligned with your target retirement date and identify drift from your target allocation. AI-powered robo-advisors have become embedded in retirement platforms specifically to help participants optimize during volatile periods — if your portfolio was more bond-heavy than your timeline required during the past 18 months, you captured less of the 24% S&P run than a properly calibrated allocation would have. These tools can’t guarantee performance, but they can prevent quiet allocation drift from costing you percentage points of return year after year.
A $10,000 hardship withdrawal at age 40 — after federal income taxes and a 10% penalty — might net roughly $6,500 in hand. At 7% real returns compounding over 25 years, that $10,000 left untouched would grow to approximately $54,000 by age 65. The IRS penalty is effectively the most expensive short-term borrowing most people never calculate. Before triggering a hardship withdrawal, check whether your plan offers a 401(k) loan provision — borrowing from yourself, repaid with interest that flows back into your own account. It is not ideal, but it preserves the compounding base that a hardship withdrawal permanently eliminates.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much has the average 401(k) actually increased under Trump’s second term?
As of June 28, 2026, Fidelity Investments data across more than 26,000 plans and 25 million participants shows the average 401(k) balance rose by $9,454 between December 31, 2024 and March 31, 2026. The age group with the highest absolute gains — workers aged 55–59 — saw approximately $16,000 in average increases. PolitiFact confirmed no age bracket averaged gains above that figure, rating Trump’s $30,000 claim “Mostly False.”
What is the average vs. median 401(k) balance heading into mid-2026?
As of Q4 2025, the median 401(k) balance was $34,400 while the average was $146,400 — a 4.25x difference, per Kiplinger. The gap reflects how heavily high-balance accounts skew the mathematical mean upward. For most workers, the median is the more representative figure: half of all participants hold less than $34,400, meaning even a 25% market return produces roughly $8,600 in absolute dollar gains — not $30,000.
Is a $30,000 401(k) gain realistic in a single year for most workers?
Only for a minority. According to Mark Williams of Boston University, a $30,000 gain would likely require a starting balance of $200,000 or more — a threshold met by only 10–20% of American workers. For a worker at the $34,400 median balance, a 25% market return yields approximately $8,600 in absolute terms. The $30,000 figure is mathematically possible; it is not representative of the typical retirement saver’s experience.
Why did 401(k)s grow far less than the S&P 500 during Trump’s second term so far?
The S&P 500 rose 24% from January 20, 2025 through June 23, 2026, but actual 401(k) accounts grew only approximately 6.5% over a comparable period. The primary reason is portfolio diversification: most 401(k)s hold bonds alongside equities, and bonds delivered flat returns during this stretch. An age-appropriate 60/40 portfolio captures only a fraction of an equity rally while absorbing fixed-income drag. The S&P 500 is a pure equity benchmark and should not be used as a proxy for blended retirement account performance.
Disclaimer: This article is editorial commentary based on publicly reported data and expert analysis. It does not constitute financial advice. Consult a licensed financial professional before making any investment or retirement planning decisions. Research based on publicly available sources current as of June 28, 2026.